2027 COLA tracker: what the CPI-W says so far
In short
The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is currently tracking near 3.1%, based on the CPI-W the Bureau of Labor Statistics has published so far. The COLA is not a decision — it is a formula, so the number can be computed before it is announced. Social Security confirms the official figure in mid-October.
The cost-of-living adjustment is one of the few federal figures anyone can work out in advance, because the law does not leave it to anyone’s discretion.
How the number is built
The COLA compares the average CPI-W across July, August and September with the same three months of the last year that produced an adjustment. The result is rounded to one decimal place. If it comes out at zero or below, there is no COLA — benefits never fall.
Where it stands now
The July 2026 reading is in. August publishes around September 11, September around October 15. Only when the third month lands is the figure exact — and at that point it is exact several days before Social Security announces it.
The number that decides your actual deposit
A COLA is a gross raise. What arrives in the account is what remains after the Medicare Part B premium, which is announced separately in November and deducted from most Social Security payments. In years when the premium rises faster than the COLA, a positive adjustment can still mean a smaller deposit. That is the figure worth waiting for, not the headline percentage.
Common questions
Can the estimate still change?
Yes. Two of the three months in the measuring quarter are still unpublished. Each release moves the figure, usually by a tenth or two.
Why can this be calculated in advance?
Because the COLA is defined in law as a formula, not a judgement. It compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September against the same quarter of the last year that produced a COLA.
Can the COLA be negative?
No. If prices fall, the adjustment is zero — benefits do not go down.
Does a raise mean a bigger deposit?
Not always. The Medicare Part B premium is deducted from most Social Security payments and is announced separately in November. If it rises faster than the COLA, the net deposit can still fall.
Source: BLS series CWUR0000SA0 (CPI-W) · formula at 42 U.S.C. 415(i) · retrieved August 31, 2026